I am a Political Scientist and Associate Professor at FGV/EBAPE, a school of business and public administration in Rio de Janeiro, and currently a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC. I was previously Assistant Professor at Rutgers, and I have held visiting, temporary, or courtesy appointments at Nuffield College, Princeton, Yale, and IUPERJ (currently IESP). I specialize in Latin American politics, and have written on executive-legislative relations, political parties, voting behavior, and the politics of public policy. This website provides information about my published and ongoing projects, as well as links to data and replication materials. I try to keep it updated, but feel free to contact me with suggestions, corrections, or to request materials not available here.
"The Volatility Curse", written in collaboration with Daniela Campello was published by Cambridge University Press in the end of 2020. In this book, we examine the consequences of voters' misattribution of responsibility for economic outcomes, particularly in countries reliant on commodity exports and foreign investment flows, and how this prevents voters from holding incumbents accountable through elections. The first paper in the project was published in The Journal of Politics in 2016, a second piece came out in the same journal in 2020, and other working papers are now circulating (see below). Our research was mentioned in The Economist, featured in Folha de São Paulo, and discussed in several other media outlets in Brazil and abroad. We also published, in the April 2020 edition of Piauí magazine, an analysis of Bolsonaro's political prospects that builds on some of the arguments that we make in the book. During my time at the Woodrow Wilson Center I'll be doing further research on ways to mitigate the volatility curse.
My first book "Partisans, Antipartisans, and Nonpartisans" (with David Samuels) was published in 2018 by Cambridge University Press and is now also available in a paperback version. We employed a mix of observational and experimental techniques to examine the determinants and consequences of party identification in Brazil. The main message of the book is that partisanship and antipartisanship developed in tandem in Brazil and have shaped voting behavior to a much greater extent than has been previously acknowledged. We are currently working of an extension and update of the arguments in the book to include the 2018 Brazilian election and beyond.
Timothy Power and I coordinate the Brazilian Legislative Surveys, a three-decade effort to track and record the beliefs of Brazilian legislators. The 8th wave of the BLS was fielded during the first semester of 2017 and the complete dataset is available in the project's repository. The first paper out of this wave examined the relative importance of each ministerial position in Brazil and was published in Research and Politics. A second paper on polarization and fragmentation in the Brazilian Congress was published in Comparative Politics and the updated estimates of the ideological positions of Brazilian parties are available as supplemental materials to this publication. The pandemic has made it difficult to field the 9th wave of the BLS, but we will be in the field through the end of 2021 in an attempt to extend our data series to include the current legislature.
I am also engaged in two public policy related projects. One is a Metaketa II field experiment on the formalization of low-income microentrepreneurs, in which I collaborate with Anna-Katharina Lenz, Rafael Goldszmitdt, and Martin Valdivia. Data collection from the endline survey was completed in 2019, a first paper from the project was published in Economics Letters and others are progressing. The other is a joint project with Natalia Bueno and Felipe Nunes that assesses the political impacts of the "Minha Casa, Minha Vida" housing program. We finished the data collection in the first semester of 2020, the first paper has recently been conditionally accepted for publication, and we are currently drafting other papers from this project.
- (2020, with Daniela Campello) "The Volatility Curse: Exogenous Shocks and Representation in Resource-Rich Democracies'', Cambridge University Press.
- (2018, with David Samuels) "Partisans, Antipartisans, and Nonpartisans: Voting Behavior in Brazil'' Cambridge University Press.
- (Forthcoming 2022, with Natalia Bueno and Felipe Nunes) "Making the bourgeoisie? Values, voice, and state-provided homeownership" The Journal of Politics. Supplemental information and replication materials available here.
- (2021, with A. K. Lenz, R. Goldszmidt, and C. Sutter) "Problemistic Search among Entrepreneurs in Brazilian Favelas" Journal of Business Venturing.
- (2021, with R. Goldszmidt, P. Behr, A. K. Lenz, L., and M. Valdivia) "Microcredit Impacts: Evidence from a Large-Scale Observational Study in Brazil'' European Journal of Development Research.
- (2021, with Timothy Power) "Fragmentation Without Cleavages? Ideology, Policy Preferences, and Political Polarization in Brazil" Comparative Politics. Supplemental information and estimates of ideological positions of parties are available here.
- (2020, with Anna-Katharina Lenz, Rafael Goldszmidt, and Martin Valdivia) "Face-to-face vs. virtual assistance to entrepreneurs: Evidence from a field experiment in Brazil" Economics Letters. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials available here.
- (2020, with Daniela Campello) "Endogenous Policymaking'' The Journal of Politics. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials available here.
- (2020, with Juan Pablo Luna and Gokce Baykal) "Do Conditionalities Increase Support for Government Transfers?" Journal of Development Studies. 56(3):527-544. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials are available here.
- (2019, with Mariana Batista and Timothy Power) "Measuring portfolio salience using the Bradley-Terry model: An illustration with data from Brazil'' Research & Politics. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials available here.
- (2018, with Bruno Rodrigues) "A Direct Comparison of the Performance of Public-Private Partnerships with that of Traditional Contracting'' Brazilian Journal of Public Administration 52(6):1237-1257.
- (2016, with Jairo Nicolau) "Trading Old Errors for New Errors? The Impact of Electronic Voting Technology on Party Label Votes in Brazil'' Electoral Studies, 43:10-20. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials available here.
- (2016, with Daniela Campello) "Presidential Success and the World Economy" The Journal of Politics 78(2):589--602. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials are available here.
- (2015, with David Samuels) "Crafting Mass Partisanship at the Grass Roots, from the Top Down" British Journal of Political Science 45(4):755-775. Supplemental information and replication materials availablehere.
- (2015) "The Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Four Presidential Elections (2002-2014)'' Brazilian Political Science Review 9(1):135-149. Supplemental information and replication materials available here.
- (2014, with David Samuels) "Lulismo, Petismo, and the Future of Brazilian Politics" Journal of Politics in Latin America 6(3):129--158.
- (2014, with David Samuels) "The Power of Partisanship in Brazil: Evidence from Survey Experiments" American Journal of Political Science 51(1):212-35. An inactive version of the online survey is available here. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
- (2013) "When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash-Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002-2010" American Journal of Political Science 47(3):810-822. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
- (2013, with Timothy Power) "Bolsa Família and the Shift in Lula's Electoral Base, 2002-2006" Latin American Research Review 48(2):3-24. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
- (2013) "Legislative Coalitions in Presidential Systems: The Case of Uruguay'' Latin American Politics and Society 55(1):96-118. Supplemental information, replication materials, and ideal point estimates are available here.
- (2012, with Timothy Power) "Elite Preferences in a Consolidating Democracy: The Brazilian Legislative Surveys, 1990-2009" Latin American Politics and Society 54(4):1-27. Supplemental information, replication materials, and estimates are available here.
- (2011, with Ben Lauderdale) "Distinguishing Between Influences on Brazilian Legislative Behavior" Legislative Studies Quarterly 36(3):363-396. Links to Supplemental information, complete set of ideal point estimates and roll call votes.
- (2009) "Ideology or What? Legislative Behavior in Multiparty Presidential Settings" The Journal of Politics, 71(3):1076-1092. Data available here.
- (2009, with Timothy Power) "Estimating Ideology of Brazilian Legislative Parties, 1990-2005" Latin American Research Review, 44(1):218-246. Data available here.
- (2008) "The President's `New' Constituency: Lula and the Pragmatic Vote in Brazil's 2006 Presidential Election" Journal of Latin American Studies, 40 p.29-49. Data available here.
- (2007) "Where's the Bias: A Reassessment of the Chilean Electoral System'' Electoral Studies, 26, p.303-14. Data available here.
OTHER SCHOLARLY PUBLICATIONS
- (2018, with David Samuels) "Partisans, Anti-Partisans, and Voter Behavior,'' in Ames, Barry (org.) "Routledge Handbook of Brazilian Politics'' Routledge, p.269-289.
- (2016, with David Samuels) ``Party-Building in Brazil: The Rise of the PT in Perspective," in Levitsky, S., J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, J. Dominguez (eds.) Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America. Cambridge University Press.
- (2015) "Estabilidad Sin Raices: La Institucionalización del Sistema de Partidos Brasileño'' In Mariano Torcal (org.) Sistemas de partidos en América Latina. Causas y consecuencias de su equilibrio inestable, Ch. 3, Anthropos.
- (2015, with Daniela Campello) "Understanding the Increasing Popularity of Brazilian Presidents,'' In Needell, Jeffrey (org.) Emergent Brazil: Key Perspectives on a New Global Power, University Press of Florida, Gainesville, Ch.3. pp.51--67.
- (2011, co-edited volume organized with Timothy Power) O Congresso por ele mesmo. UFMG Press, Belo Horizonte. Data available here.
- Esquerda, Direita e Governo: A ideologia dos partidos políticos brasileiros (Chapter in the above mentioned book)
- (2008, with Daniela Campello) "A esquerda em um país democrático, globalizado e desigual: Uma análise do Brasil de Lula" in Moreira, Carlos et al (Editors), La nueva política en América Latina: rupturas y continuidades. Trilice, Montevideo, p.97-124.
WORK IN PROGRESS
- "Exogenous Shocks and Misattribution of Responsibility for Economic Performance: Results From Survey Experiments'' (with Daniela Campello, working paper)
- "Exogenous Economic Conditions and Irregular Transitions in Latin America" (with Daniela Campello, working paper)
- "What you see and what you get: direct and indirect political dividends of public policies" (with Natalia Bueno and Felipe Nunes, under review)
- "Benefits by luck: A study of lotteries as a selection method for government programs" (with Natalia Bueno and Felipe Nunes, under review)
- "Do political preferences affect policy learning and uptake? Evidence from a field experiment with micro-entrepreneurs in Brazil'' (with Anna-Katharina Lenz, Rafael Goldszmidt, and Martin Valdivia, under review)